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BJP landslide in Gujarat, Congress edge in Himachal, AAP sweep in MCD: What exit polls predict

The BJP is pegged to sweep Gujarat for the seventh consecutive time, the Congress is predicted to win Himachal Pradesh in a neck-and-neck battle with the BJP, while the AAP is ahead in its fight in the Delhi civic body, the India Today-Axis My India exit polls predicted.

The Congress may return to power in Himachal Pradesh, the BJP will retain Gujarat, the AAP will likely bag Delhi’s civic body, exit polls said

By Sumana Nandy: The BJP is all set to sweep Gujarat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state, for the seventh consecutive time while it might not end up retaining Himachal Pradesh, the India Today-Axis My India exit polls predicted.

The Congress is predicted to win Himachal Pradesh in a neck-and-neck battle with the BJP while its performance in Gujarat will continue to be a dampener.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), however, is likely to stun in the Delhi civic polls, tightening its hold on the national capital, where it is in power since 2015, if the exit polls, which are not always right, are to go by.

* More from IndiaToday.in’s Election 2022 coverage: Gujarat assembly polls 2022 | Himachal Pradesh assembly polls 2022 | Full coverage

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GUJARAT PREDICTIONS

The BJP is all set to make a landslide comeback in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state, likely sweeping 129 to 151 seats in the 182-member Gujarat Assembly, the India Today-Axis My India exit polls showed. If the exit poll is to be believed, the saffron camp will continue their over two-and-a-half-decades-long winning streak in the crucial state.

Unlike until 2017, this election will not be a two-pronged battle between the BJP and the Congress. There is a new player in the ring – the Aam Aadmi Party, or the AAP. The party campaigned with might and main in the state, hoping to wrest power from the BJP. It is predicted to end third with 9-21 seats in its bag behind the Congress, which will manage anything between 16-30 seats, the survey said.

Votes polled in all the 182 Assembly seats will be counted on December 8.

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VOTE SHARE

According to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, the BJP is likely to secure 46 per cent vote share in the state, followed by Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) with 26 per cent and 20 per cent shares, respectively.

HIMACHAL PRADESH PREDICTIONS

A neck-and-neck battle is predicted in the state between the BJP and Congress, despite severe anti-incumbency and leadership crisis in the state unit of the BJP.

According to the India Today-Axis My India exit polls, it is advantage Congress in the hill state, while the BJP, looking to make history with a record second consecutive term, is set for disappointment.

The BJP may fall short of its 2017 performance, when it won the most seats in the state – 44, and may manage to win between 24 and 34 seats. The saffron party, according to the predictions, may not be able to breach the halfway mark in the 68-member assembly. The Congress, according to the poll pundits, may grab anything between 30 and 40 seats – a major improvement from the 21 it won in 2017.

New entrant Aam Aadmi Party, contesting in the hill state for the first time to build up on its plan to build a national presence, will likely not bag any, the exit poll showed.

More Independents are likely to win this election. Around four seats will go to the Independents, a 100% jump from 2017.

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VOTE SHARE PREDICTION

The Congress will win a 44 per cent vote share in the state, the BJP is predicted to win 42 per cent, while others are pegged to win a 12 per cent share.

OCCUPATION WISE

As per the survey, 43 per cent of unemployed voters voted for the BJP, 46 per cent for the Congress and 11 per cent for the others. The saffron party got 40 per cent of the labours’ votes, Congress got 47 per cent and others got 15 per cent, it said. Thirty nine per cent of skilled professionals voted for the BJP, 46 per cent for the Congress and 15 per cent for others, the exit poll showed.

CASTE WISE

From the Scheduled Caste community, the BJP managed to win 34 per cent votes, Congress 52 per cent and others won 14 per cent, the survey showed. Forty four per cent of the Scheduled Tribes’ votes went in the BJP’s favour, 43 per cent in Congress’s, while the others bagged 13 per cent, it added. Forty six per cent of the Other Backward Classes (OBC) voted for the BJP in Himachal Pradesh, 43 per cent for the Congress and 11 per cent for the others, the exit poll showed.

MUSLIM VOTE SHARE

A whopping 65 per cent of Muslims have voted for the Congress, 28 per cent for others and a meager seven per cent for the BJP, the survey said.

Himachal Pradesh voted in a single phase last month, on November 12. The votes will be counted on December 7.

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DELHI CIVIC BODY PREDICTIONS

The Aam Aadmi Party looks set to wrest power from the BJP for control of the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD), India Today-Axis My India exit polls predicted this evening. The party, in power in the national capital for seven years now, fought on the agenda of garbage management in the national capital as it also battled several allegations of corruption against its ministers and leaders.

As per exit polls, the Aam Aadmi Party will likely win 149 to 171 wards in the Delhi civic polls, while the BJP looks set to win 69 to 91 wards. The Congress will in probability win three to seven wards, while other political parties may win five to nine, the survey said.

VOTE SHARE

As per the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, the Aam Aadmi Party may secure 43 per cent vote share, while the BJP is expected to get 35 per cent. Congress will likely get 10 per cent of the share.

Polling in the 250 municipal wards in Delhi was held on December 4 and counting of votes will be held on December 7.

Also Read | Exit Polls 2022: BJP to dominate Gujarat, Congress in with a chance in Himachal


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