A report put out by public policy think tank NITI Aayog and Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council (TIFAC) optimistically forecast 100 per cent penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Indian market by FY2026-27.
TIFAC is an autonomous organization set up in 1988 under the Department of Science & Technology to look ahead in the technology domain, assess the technology trajectories, and support innovation.
The report was titled ‘Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India’. The report provided important insights into the required infrastructure, manufacturing capability, policies, and technology-development priorities in the sector.
If an R&D programme manages to enhance the range and power of electric two-wheelers by 5 per cent annually between FY2023-24 and 2025-26, and by 10 per cent in FY 2026-2027, the penetration of electric-two wheelers may reach about 72 per cent in FY 2031-32–even with no extension of the demand-side incentives.
The sale of electric two-wheelers may cross 220 lakh units by FY2028-29, it said.
Based on the analysis, the report said that India is at a crossroads and a shift to electric mobility, particularly, in the two-wheelers segment, may happen faster than anticipated.
During the initial stage, due to low level of electric vehicle penetration, higher ratio of charging points to electric vehicles will be required to instil confidence in the minds of the customers, the report said.
If there is sufficient installed capacity of electric two-wheelers and charging infrastructure, then sale may even reach about 250 lakh units.
During the launch of the report, NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant, said: “This report provides a much-needed tool to the industry, researchers, academicians, and policymakers to analyze and respond to various scenarios. It can be replicated easily in other segments too, such as four-wheelers, without any hassle.”
The future scenarios have been constructed on the basis of three major factors that influence the market penetration of electric two-wheelers. They are demand incentives, cost of battery, and vehicle performance in terms of both range and power.